No doubt historians and political junkies will be analyzing the selection of Sarah Palin and her role in the 2008 campaign for years to come. Rather than dwell on her failed candicacy, I’m most interested in looking forward, because I believe that Palin can have a high profile role in the future of the Republican party if she so chooses.

Watching Palin at McCain’s side as he conceeded on Election Night I said to my wife, “She’s going to have to spend the next couple of years figuring out what she believes in.” I think this rings true because in today’s tightly-controlled campaigns VP candidates are highly scripted. It’s hard to know what Palin said over these last few months that was actually her own opinion. Looking at her work in Alaska also makes it hard to see a common theme other than some sort of local pragmaticism.  

If we rely on her message of the 2008 campaign to indicate her idology, then I would put her and Mike Huckabee as the closest two Republicans in terms of political beliefs. Huckabee’s brand of small-town populism is very similar to Palin’s rhetoric during the campaign. I heard Huckabee give a speech at the NRA convention held here in May and when I later heard Palin’s stump speeches it was eerily similar.

But is Palin a populist? I don’t know. She certainly sounded like one at times, but so do most American politicians. As someone once said about American politics, “Populism is in our DNA.” In the short term the label will stick to her more than others, but this may not be an accurate depiction of her beliefs. What it may represent is opportunism. Back in April Obama made a miscalculated statement where he said in part, “…and each successive administration has said that somehow these communities are going to regenerate and they have not. And it’s not surprising, then, they get bitter, they cling to guns or religion…” When Palin arrived at the Republican convention, riding on her image as a small town girl who hunted moose, she tried out a rebuttal to Obama’s remarks:

I might add that in small towns, we don’t quite know what to make of a candidate who lavishes praise on working people when they are listening, and then talks about how bitterly they cling to their religion and guns when those people aren’t listening.

While the small-town narrative was probably intended to position her solidly with middle class / heartland voters, I think even McCain’s campaign was shocked by how well this comment went over. Convention attendees went wild and within a week McCain had topped the polls. So I ask the folks with 20/20 hindsight….after that performance and reaction, what story would YOU want Palin to tell? I think given the reactions by crowds in those first weeks and given Palin’s background, a small-town oriented populist message seemed like a good fit.

It’s important to remember that the basic premise of her rhetoric rings somewhat true for most people. There IS a noticeable difference in attitudes between ’small towns’ and ‘big cities’ and as a general rule in 2008 America, small towns lean more to the right while cities lean more to the left. This fact is not good or bad, but it is real. To ignore that would be a bad idea for either party.

What Palin was selling was a vision. It’s the vision of small towns where everyone knows each other. Where we can leave our doors unlocked at night. Where everyone goes to the football game on Friday night. Is it a an accurate vision? No. But it’s one we all aspire to. Ask any one of a hundred devlopers around the country designing planned communities that seek to revive the notion of ’small towns’ even within a big city context.

Looking forward Sarah Palin is going to have to decide if a populist message is one that will work best for her, or something else. If I was advising her I would recommend reshaping her small towns vs big towns message into what I think she was really getting at which is a conservative values vs liberal values message.

The path forward for her is pretty clear. Lay low for a couple of years other than a few speeches here and there where she can try out various messages and talking points. Try to continue her bipartisan streak in Alaska. Stay clear of anything that will be perceived as overly fundamentalist. Do her homework on civic, historical, geographical and cultural issues. Continue to be a leading voice on the Right on energy issues. Work with the party leadership to help the party, not hurt it. Make friends in the party and seek out those with similar beliefs to form alliances.

We have not heard the last of Sarah Palin by a long shot…if she wants to hang around. The question remains, will Palin 2012 be a better candidate than Palin 2008?