I continue to wonder if the Left, or at the very least the black community, should begin a quiet dialogue about what an Obama defeat would mean. I have heard more than one black commentator responsibly raise the same question. Their collective fear seems to be that his defeat will be perceived among blacks as evidence of racism in this country and re-open wounds that have been healing for the last few decades. I second that fear.

Many conservatives, myself among them, believe that the biggest obstacle to advancement of a person or group is to the development of a victim mentality. At one time or another we all feel like victims. But this feeling has become institutionalized in some groups, primarily those in poverty and minorities. And what has fed this line of thinking? A liberal movement which advances social programs as the core of its platform. As a Progressive I actually love social programs but the problem is that most liberal-sponsored programs are not geared towards lifting others up. They just maintain the status quo. This keeps people down and creates resentment, but it also creates dependable voters.

The beauty of liberalism is that it dares to speak of lofty goals, even when its policies suggest otherwise. Liberals seek to be the heart of America, while conservatives have always claimed to be the brains. So it’s hard to criticize their optimism this year when the odds look so strong. One of the most unpopular presidents ever is closing out his term. Republican fatigue lead to a major Congressional power shift in 2006 and the prospects for 2008 are roughly the same. The Democratic candidate is a wonderful speaker and has come far in a short time. It is supposed to be their time.

The reality though is different. Obama has dropped his early lead and unless his convention turns itself around in the next two nights, his expected bump main not materialize. McCain is surging and polling data shows that he is swaying independents and some Clinton supporters to his side. Things are looking much different than they did a few months ago.

Every four years I remember some wise advice I once heard: “We should never under-estimate the ability of Democrats to lose a presidential election.” This has been true over and over for the last 40 years and it may come true today. That is why a dialogue is the most responsible thing. Republicans don’t need one because we’re realists when it comes to political defeats and we rarely lay blame (remember the silence after 2006?) Democrats on the other hand… 2000 was stolen. 2004 was because evangelicals tricked everyone. 2008 will be because of hidden racism. We can all hear the narrative now.

The responsible answer is that if Obama loses it is because he didn’t run the best campaign. It’s really that simple. Unfortunately what we will hear for four years is more slander and claims of unfairness. A victim mentality. This helps no one and it certainly won’t help advance the causes that Obama has stood for.